Last season Sky used the strapline ‘Every Goal Matters’ for their coverage of the Barclays Premier League. This was undoubtedly a result of the 2011/12 being ultimately determined in City’s favour by a superior goal difference and perhaps alluding to the impact on the respective goal differences for City and United of the glorious 1-6 thrashing meted out to the latter at Old Trafford.
After 9 games this season there are no clear front runners in the Premier League with only 6 points separating the top seven places. It looks like being the most open race for the title for many years. As a result the new strap line could easily be adapted into ‘Every Point Matters’ with the margins for error in the race for the title and the cherished Champions League places being thinner than ever. Perhaps this season as never before will dropping points be more significant which makes City’s failure to secure at least one point against The Smug One’s Kings Road Chancers even harder to bear.
After the desperate, gut-wrenching disappointment of Sunday evenings result at Stamford Bridge Blues everywhere will find it hard to seek comfort in the maths that results from the wreckage of that game. For in order for City to have a chance of winning the title it means that for the remainder of the season they will probably have to sustain a Points Per Game (PPG) ratio of approximately 2.52 which is higher than that managed over an entire season by the winners of the title in the last ten years (2.34). Only one team has gotten close to this in the last ten years – Chelsea in the 2004/05 season won the league with 95 points, a PPG of 2.50. And that was over 38 games where there is more margin for error.
In the past ten seasons the average winning points total for the Premier League has been 88.6 – for arguments sake let’s round this up to 89. The range being between 80 points (United 2010/11) & the 95 points set by Chelsea in 2004/05. City’s record so far this season is 16 points from 9 games & so, other things being equal (i.e. no one team blazes a spectacular trail leaving everyone behind and assuming that the average winning points total is reasonable), to achieve a total of 89 points they need a further 73 points from the remaining 29 games.
A PPG ratio of 2.52.
Put another way, the League winners have failed to win an average of 10-11 games during the season. City have already failed to win 4 games with nearly a quarter of the season finished leaving scope for only 6-7 matches over the remaining three quarters of the campaign where they can leave the pitch without securing maximum points from a match. There are several ways this could work out and a lot of things still need to fall into place, but assuming that 89 points remains the target, I suggest that this effectively means City have to win at least 23 matches from the remaining 29 fixtures, drawing perhaps 4 and losing only 2 more games.
That is – only 14-15 points can be dropped between now and the seasons end.
That is a tough ask when the away form has been less than secure and the team seemingly prone to critical individual defensive errors. It will require a sustained level of performance which might be beyond the squad as it struggles to come to terms with new managerial/coaching demands/instructions, the pressures of Champions League involvement and the absence of key personnel in defence.
It is a fact that a lot of things have to come together for this to come to pass – other teams have to maintain their form, the impact of the results between the main title contenders may be a factor etc. and I am aware that you can change this around a few ways (a win for a loss, a loss for a draw) but ultimately I would argue that it makes little difference to the maths. The stats over a season are quite compelling and hard to pull away from – it’s like trying to escape the pull of gravity.
Despite every game being different from the opponents to the conditions to the available personnel or the scheduling of the matches, the effort required to achieve and sustain the performance levels needed to improve your PPG remains a constant. You can’t drop your guard for a moment. That is where lapses such as the one delivered to the jaw-dropping incredulity of City fans in the dying seconds of normal time on Sunday (did time slow down for everyone else watching as Hart charged out and Torres rushed past to reach the ball and steer it inside the post?) have a greater significance than just the intense disappointment of losing a game in those circumstances.
City’s margin for error was never very large. It is now wafer thin.
UPCOMING DATES FOR YOUR FILOFAX:
all times East Manchester GMT
TOMORROW 19h45 Newcastle, St James’ Park LC4
Sa 02 Nov 15h00 Norwich City, The Etihad PL
Tu 05 Nov 19h45 CSKA Moscow, The Etihad CLGS4
Su 10 Nov 1405 Sunderland, Stadium of Light PL
Su 24 Nov 13h30 Spurs, The Etihad PL
We 27 Nov 19h45 Viktoria Plzen, The Etihad CLGS5
Su 01 Dec 16h10 Swansea City, The Etihad PL
We 04 Dec 20h00 West Brom, The Hawthorns PL
Sa 07 Dec 15h00 Southampton, St Mary’s Stadium PL
Tu 10 Dec 19h45 Bayern Munich, Allianz Arena CLGS
Sa 14 Dec 15h00 Arsenal, The Etihad PL
Sa 21 Dec 15h00 Fulham, Craven Cottage PL
Th 26 Dec 15h00 Liverpool, The Etihad PL
Sa 28 Dec 15h00 Crystal Palace, The Etihad PL
We 01 Jan2014 15h00 GMT Swansea City, Liberty Stadium PL
Share this article
